Some numbers have the ability to predict the future. For example, it is a fact that 800 million people worldwide already own an iPhone or some other smartphone. According to Apple Balla,less than 1.25 billion people in the world can afford to buy any sort of smartphone at the current prices. As a consequence, Apple will see drastic reduction in the sale of new iPads, while the replacement market will continue to grow. One way for Apple to avoid this is to face the fact that the market needs cheaper smartphones. This low-end market consists of 500 million potential new Apple customers each year for the next two years.
According to the analyst Toni Sacconaghi, Apple will soon start having hard time with the sale of the new iPhones, in spite of their great popularity. Many customers, who already own Apple iPhone, will look for a replacement instead of buying the new phone. The number of iPhone purchases will drop from 62 percent to 54 percent and will continue dropping to 28 percents in 2015. The replacement iPhone market will grow exponentially during the same period.
Rumored contract with China Mobile would change this prediction, since China Mobile currently has more than 700 million subscribers. Other possible way for Apple to save the situation would be to come up with an affordable iPhone which would be interesting for the emerging developing countries’ markets.