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Twitter Growth Will Continue To Slow

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Twitter Growth Will Continue To Slow
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Twitter Growth Will Continue To Slow

Since its IPO last November, Twitter has grappled, publicly and painfully, with questions about why it isn’t growing faster. CEO Dick Costolo has outlined a multi-pronged plan he says will help reaccelerate growth, mostly by making it easier for new users to find their way into the service and have rewarding experiences right away, without a long, steep learning curve.

It may do the trick. But it won’t return Twitter to its growth rate of years past, or put it on a trajectory to catch Facebook, according to a new long-term forecast from eMarketer.

The market research firm predicts that Twitter’s worldwide user base will continue to swell over the next five years, but at an ever diminishing rate, with growth tailing off from 24.4% in 2014 to 10.7% by 2018.

The biggest gains will come in the Asia-Pacific region, particularly India and Indonesia, and in Latin America and Russia. In fact, Asia-Pacific already accounts for a larger share of Twitter’s user base than North America, 29.1% versus 28.1%.

In the U.S., Twitter’s user growth will subside into the single-digit-percentage range by 2015, eMarketer projects. This year, it will be just 11.6%. The firm also believes Twitter’s total global audience of monthly active users will reach 227.5 million this year, below the 255 million the company already claims. EMarketer says its methodology adjusts for business accounts, double accounts and other sources of user inflation.

One big wild card in all this is China, where Twitter is now banned. If that changes, 1 billion monthly users could be very much within Twitter’s reach.

 

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