Early-adopters are people who don't mind being screwed on cost. They're fine picking up a $2000 television that'll be worth half that much in six months time, as long as they can claim to be ahead of the curve. I bought my G1 last year knowing full well that, within a few months, my mobile would be outstripped by every other smartphone on the market. It was worth it to be one of the first Android users.
For people who don't care about nerd bragging rights, it's important to know when the latest and greatest will be cheap and effective enough to be a worthwhile buy. Take OLED technology, for instance. While tech geeks might be cool with dropping thousands of dollars on a 15” monitor, normal people would rather get a 50” LCD screen instead. OLED just isn't cheap enough to be a viable choice for most folks, but the day when it will be is coming up.
OLED-Display.net (via Engadget) reports that at the FPD show in Japan, the VP of LG's OLED sales stated that he expects OLED devices to be chaper than LCD by 2016. In the meanwhile, LG will have a 20” LG TV out next year, a 30” one out by 2011, and a 40” beast launched by 2012. I realize it's a ways off, but the very idea of a 40” OLED television has me all hot and bothered.
So, from a consumer standpoint, OLED tech is still way off from being commercially viable. You can drop 2 grand on an LCD or Plasma TV content in the knowledge that a dirt cheap OLED device isn't going to come out of nowhere and activate your buyer's remorse. Get a new TV now, and then get your next one when OLED's drop in price.
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