AT&T's iPhone exclusivity was not supposed to last this long. By the same time last year, everyone and their dog was predicting a Verizon iPhone in summer 2010. Prior to the iPad's launch, Big Red was seen as a lock for the gadget's data provider. Brian Marshall, an analyst with BroadPoint AmTech, believes that AT&T did something “dramatic” to accomplish this coup (Computerworld).
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$30/month for unlimited data, on a non-reoccurring plan, is one of the best deals in the industry. Marshall believes that AT&T only agreed to it in exchange for an extension of some sort on their iPhone exclusivity. The iPad was a big win for the carrier, but not quite big enough to justify that sort of price-break on its own.
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Marshall now feels that the iPhone will hit Verizon in Q1 2011. While his conclusions are quite logical, there's no hard independent corroboration to back them up. The Verizon iPhone rumors won't be truly dead for the year until after the iPhone 4G launch event.