I Make A WILD PREDICTION
The Kid from Cupertino just showed his hand. For the last two years Apple has been laser-focused on the mobile market. Mobile, mobile, mobile- new iPhones, the iPad and the App Store. Mac market share has done well- hitting double-digits for the first time in 20 years, but Mac's share of the profits is lower than it has ever been.
But that may change soon. Today's "take back the Mac" event was nothing less than a declaration of total war. Mac is on the offensive against PC for the first time in years. Let's take a look at Apple's big announcements today:
1. The new Lion OS X will be closer in operation to the iPad/iPhone. This will make Mac seem more comfortable to the tens of millions of iOS users who do not currently own a Mac.
2. The App Store is coming to the Mac. This is huge. The App Store may be Apple's single greatest advantage. With a staggering 7 billion downloads, nothing else in the mobile market comes close. Not even Android. By connecting Mac to the App Store, they nudge that great mob of users one step closer to Apple's camp.
3. FaceTime compatibility doesn't seem like such a huge thing. Video-calling isn't a dominating factor in many people's lives, but the move belies Apple's real motive- to merge capabilities and data across a great number of devices. The iPhone and the iPad and the iPod can use FaceTime, so of course the Mac can too.
4. From a hardware geek's standpoint, the New Air kinda blows. It has all the kick of last-year's CULV and a battery life that isn't exactly stunning. Instant-on is cool, but I don't expect the Air to break any sales records. What's significant is that this is where Apple sees the evolution of their MacBook platform heading.
Mac is moving closer to the iPad- and thus closer to iOS, with every passing generation. Apple isn't trying to hide it.
And it just might work. Mac market share in the US is at 10.4% now. Give people a year (and another round of releases) to get hyped up. Waves and waves of people- 7.46 million for the iPad and 100 million iOS devices total, have already dipped their feet into Apple's River of Temptation.
The iPad's satisfaction rate? 82%. That's the highest any manufacturer has ever gotten. People love their iOS devices, and that love is going to bleed over to Mac the more Mac becomes like iOS.
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I hate to throw out numbers, but I'm going to make a Wild Prediction to add emphasis: Mac Adoption will break 15% before the end of 2011. See if it doesn't happen.