I can hardly wait for July 31.
Android tablets will hold a larger chunk of the US market share than the iPad by July 31st. This isn't a very precise prediction, but I'd be seriously surprised if it takes much longer than that to happen.
Why am I so confident? The Samsung Galaxy Tab hasn't been any kind of hit. And the other big-name Android tablets have yet to see a launch. Shouldn't we expect the same sort of long, slow road to supremacy with tablets that we saw with smartphones?
But now Strategy Analytics reports that Android devices actually gobbled up 22% of the global tablet market in Q4. The iPad is down to 75%. Which is still pretty damn impressive, but also a sign of how much progress Android has made without a good tablet to its name.
That won't last long, and I think we can expect to see Android's tablet growth really take off starting with the Xoom's launch in February. Sure, there's the iPad 2 to deal with, but by the time it launches the tablet market will be a VERY different place. The iPad won't be the only viable, high-end tablet. And this summer will be filled with a bevy of belated entrants from companies like Toshiba.
So yeah. Android #1 in tablets by the end of July. See if I'm wrong.*
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*It is entirely possible that I am wrong.