Comcast sees Customer Loss in 2008
Posted on Wed, 5 Dec 2007 12:00:00 CST | by Luigi Lugmayr
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By Yinka Adegoke
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Comcast Corp , the largest U.S. cable television operator,
said on Wednesday it expects to lose video customers in 2008 as competitive and
economic pressure mounts, and its shares fell more than 10 percent.
The comments from Comcast Chief Financial Officer Michael Angelakis came a day
after the company lowered its forecast for 2007 cable revenue growth to about 11
percent from a previous forecast of at least 12 percent, citing a "challenging
economic and competitive environment."
The cautious outlook took down other cable stocks, with Time Warner Cable Inc.
falling 5 percent to $25.69 and Cablevision Systems Corp. losing 6 percent to
$25.32.
Angelakis said Comcast's scale across the United States has meant that it has
been hurt by the downturn in the housing market and a tougher macro-economic
environment.
"When we see a little bit of a rise in both churn and bad debt, that indicates
there's an economic issue," he told investors at a UBS media conference. Churn
is the industry term for customer losses.
Angelakis said Comcast expected to lose more basic video customers in the
current quarter and into 2008, hurt by competition from new video services from
Verizon Communications Inc and AT&T Inc , as well as from longer-term
competition from satellite TV operators DirecTV Group Inc and EchoStar
Communications Corp .
"We will fight in the streets and do everything we can for retention but I think
the expectation that I have is we will lose some share in the video side," said
Angelakis.
In the third quarter, Comcast posted a 54 percent drop in quarterly profit as it
lost more basic video subscribers than expected.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs and Miller Tabak cut Comcast shares' rating to
"neutral" from "buy" on Wednesday after Comcast lowered its outlook late on
Tuesday.
"Our "extreme downside scenario" is playing out worse than we thought and are
thus lowering our estimates again," Goldman's Anthony Noto said in a note to
investors.
Another analyst said competition from the likes of Verizon, which is offering
free high-definition television sets to new customers of its FiOS video service,
was more of a problem than the U.S. economy.
"We believe the vast majority of the reductions are due to competition," said
Richard Greenfield, an analyst at Pali Research. "Comcast simply did not expect
the level of competitive marketing spend that has occurred this year."
Comcast also raised its 2007 capital expenditure by 5 percent to about $6
billion due to an increased spending on advanced set-top boxes, network
enhancement and an accelerated shift to digital technology.
Capital spending has traditionally been a sensitive issue for cable investors
concerned with a poor return on investment.
"I think we need to be a bit more precise and a bit more transparent in how we
spend capex," said Angelakis, who joined Comcast a year ago.
Comcast shares fell $2.15 to $18.58 in morning trading on the Nasdaq. Before
today's fall, the stock had already lost 25 percent of its value this year.
(editing by Dave Zimmerman)
© Copyright 2007 Reuters.
Posted on Wed, 5 Dec 2007 12:00:00 CST | by Luigi Lugmayr
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