Investors eye Yahoo's Alternatives to Microsoft
Posted on Sun, 4 May 2008 22:59:56 CDT | by Luigi Lugmayr
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By Michele Gershberg and Anupreeta Das
NEW YORK/SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Yahoo Inc faced growing pressure on Sunday to
find an alternative strategy to Microsoft Corp's $47.5 billion takeover offer
after the software maker walked away over a disagreement on price.
Yahoo shares could fall by more than 30 percent on Monday over the breakdown of
talks, but that drop could be softened if Wall Street believes Yahoo Chief
Executive Jerry Yang has another strategy up his sleeve, analysts said.
Yahoo is likely to push for an advertising partnership with Web search leader
Google Inc, sources familiar with the matter said. A tie-up with Google, seen as
a big winner from the end of Microsoft-Yahoo talks, should help boost Yahoo's
operating performance in the near term.
"It's time to get a move on with Google," said Jeffrey Lindsay, analyst with
Sanford C. Bernstein. "Let's hope they weren't bluffing."
Yahoo is also still considering a deal with another Internet media and
advertising major, such as Time Warner Inc's AOL, people familiar with the
discussions said.
But Yang and the company he helped create could face a flood of shareholder
lawsuits or other actions if nothing materializes.
"There are two things that could support the stock: the potential for Microsoft
to return and the potential to do a Google deal," said Clayton Moran, analyst at
Stanford Group.
Moran said Yahoo shares could fall to the mid- to low-$20 range on Monday from
their $28.67 close last week. Other analysts said it could slip closer to
$19.18, where it closed on January 31, a day before Microsoft made its offer
public.
Microsoft shares are likely to rise on Monday, with its investors relieved that
Chief Executive Steve Ballmer didn't shell out billions more for Yahoo, analysts
said.
Microsoft on Saturday sweetened its initial $31-per-share offer for Yahoo to
$33, but then withdrew from the talks when Yang dug in for a price of $37.
Yang maintains that even the higher offer did not value Yahoo properly for its
investment in search technology, its prominence in online display advertising
and other assets. On Sunday, he sought to shore up that sentiment among
employees.
"We have a spirit and a culture that is uniquely Yahoo," Yang said in an email
to staff that was viewed by Reuters. "Staying true to who we are has helped us
pull through the recent uncertainty we've faced."
SHAREHOLDER CHALLENGE
While some Yahoo investors hoped it could wrest a price of $35 per share from
Microsoft, a dissident shareholder said he would challenge Yang and the board
over the collapse of talks.
"Shareholders didn't even get a chance to vote on the deal, but the board
negotiated on our behalf and not in good faith," Eric Jackson, who leads a group
of investors who collectively own 2 million Yahoo shares, told Reuters.
He said he would urge shareholders to withhold votes from the company's
directors this year.
Bernstein's Lindsay estimates Yahoo could be worth up to $35 per share with a
Google deal, and even $37 with more job cuts, but that drops to $25 per share if
no partnerships are in the offing.
Yahoo has conducted tests with Google to outsource some of its search listings
to its arch-rival. It has also held talks in tandem with AOL and Rupert
Murdoch's News Corp.
A source familiar with the matter said on Sunday that the News Corp talks had
cooled in recent weeks.
"It increasingly appears like Yahoo will pursue a Google search partnership,"
said Moran, who said he still favored a Microsoft buyout. "Given Google's
position (in the market), a partnership with them cedes control and limits the
long-term value creation for Yahoo."
BALLMER'S WARNING
Ballmer portrayed Yahoo's options as particularly stark in a letter to Yang
detailing his reasons for pulling back, and suggested any Google tie-up would
preclude a Microsoft deal.
Microsoft and Google are increasingly competing on the same turf, such as
Web-based applications, email and messaging. The proposed Yahoo purchase was
meant to create a fiercer rival to Google and challenge its hold on Internet
advertising.
"The real winner in all of this seems to be Google," said Canaccord Adams
analyst Colin Gillis. "There's going to be no powerful number two" in the Web
market, he said.
Gillis rated Yahoo a "buy" with a $35 price target before the deal talks with
Microsoft collapsed. "We were very clear that was not based on fundamentals," he
said.
Ballmer also warned Yahoo that it would give up its relationship with
advertisers by coordinating with Google and could lose some of its best
engineering talent.
Some analysts disputed that idea, saying Yahoo's operating results would
certainly benefit from a Google partnership.
Other Google partners, including IAC/InterActiveCorp's Ask.com, have structured
deals that keep them in control of their advertiser ties, Bernstein's Lindsay
said.
(Additional reporting by Kenneth Li in New York; Editing by Braden Reddall)
© Copyright 2007 Reuters.
Posted on Sun, 4 May 2008 22:59:56 CDT | by Luigi Lugmayr
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