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Apple's iPad Activations Were Strong But Not Spectacular On Christmas Day

Dec 31 2013, 9:46am CST | by

Apple's iPad Activations Were Strong But Not Spectacular On Christmas Day
Photo Credit: Forbes
 
 
 

Fiksu provides a Software Development Kit (SDK) for mobile devices that is used by a wide range of companies including 7 Eleven, Coca-Cola, Disney, Samsung and Zynga. It measures each device that use its SDK only once even it is running multiple apps so it can provide some insight into how well the various iPad models are doing and I use it project how many were sold. (Note that my family and I own Apple shares).

Fiksu’s has tracked the iPad 4, original mini, iPad Air and Retina mini from the day they were launched. It measures how many of each iPad were in use vs. the iPad install base that has its SDK installed. I have taken the difference between the percentage of each model from December 24 and 25 to get a read on how many were opened on Christmas day.

Source: Fiksu

There may have been fewer iPad’s opened on Christmas this year vs. last

The combination of iPad Air’s and Retina mini’s opened on Christmas day this year could have been lower at 4 million vs. the 4.3 million iPad 4’s and original mini’s that I calculate could have been opened as presents last year. A large reason for this is probably due to the Retina mini only being available since November 12 while the original mini first shipped on November 2, 2012.

I have taken the difference in the percentage that each iPad showed up in Fiksu’s numbers between December 24 and 25 and multiplied it by the install base number (minus 10% for an estimated number that are not in use). I have also developed a Google Doc that shows the analysis that is available via this link.

For the iPad 4 and original mini I calculate that 4.3 million were opened on Christmas day in 2012. This is determined by:

  • iPad 4 usage increased by 1.92% of the install base
  • iPad original mini usage increased by 2.06%
  • The iPad install base was 109 million (90% of 121 million)
  • Multiplying 1.92% and 2.06% into 109 million gives 4.3 million iPads 

For the iPad Air and Retina mini I calculate that 4.0 million were opened on Christmas day this year. This is determined by:

  • iPad Air usage increased by 1.56% of the install base
  • iPad Retina mini usage increased by 0.69%
  • The iPad install base was 177 million (90% of 197 million)
  • Multiplying 1.56% and 0.69% into 177 million gives 4.0 million iPads 

Keep in mind this in only one data point

Fiksu’s numbers are only one data point so it would be prudent to see what other metrics and analysis indicate. There are also a number of factors that could distort the analysis for how the Air and Retina mini did in the quarter which include:

  • Fiksu has its SDK installed on about 1,800 apps currently vs. 700 a year ago, an increase of 157%
  • Are the 1,100 new apps that use Fiksu’s SDK installed at a higher (or lower) rate on iPad Air’s than iPad 4’s and Mini’s?
  • Are iPad Air users more likely to install one of the 1,800 apps than the iPad 4 and Mini users did a year ago when there were 700 apps
  • Fiksu’s apps tend to be more U.S. oriented vs. Apple’s sales
  • The geographies that the Air has been launched are different than the ones a year ago
  • Fiksu’s apps are only installed on a percentage of all iPads so it does not capture all iPad usage 

Follow me on Twitter @sandhillinsight. You can find my other Forbes posts here.

Source: Forbes

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