Adobe released their highly accurate Holiday Online Shopping Sales forecast for 2015. Americans will spend a record $83 billion, which is up 11%.
Americans will spend $83 billion online in the upcoming Holiday 2015 season. This new record sales volume is an increase of 11% compared to last year. This new Holiday shopping forecast comes from Adobe, who has a track record of being accurate. Their forecast has been within 2% of actual Holiday sales.
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According to the Adobe 2015 Digital Index Online Shopping Prediction report, Cyber Monday 2015 will reach $3 billion for first time, a 12% increase from 2014. Thanksgiving Day online sales still grow the fastest with 18% YoY to $1.6B. Black Friday 2015 will come in at $2.7B says Adobe, which is an increase of 12.5% compared to last year.
Adobe tracks 55 million product SKUs, but only 1% of those products accounts for the majority of online sales (76%). More than half (60%) of the top 1% products are electronics. This lines up with the Holiday 2015 consumer electronics sales forecast by CEA released earlier.
As expected mobile shopping is on the rise again. For the first time more than half of the online shopping visits will come from a mobile device predicts Adobe.
An important information for Black Friday shoppers from the Adobe report is that prices will be lowest on Thanksgiving Day. This is no surprise, as most Black Friday sales begin online on Thanksgiving Day. The average discount will hit 26% on Thanksgiving Day. Being first to grab the Black Friday 2015 deals on Thanksgiving Day is essential as out-of-stock incidents increase by 83% on Thanksgiving Day.
The top Holiday online stores are Amazon followed by eBay and Target. Walmart has its work cut out to break into the top three. Walmart is though the talk on social media. The giant retailer beats the Gap, driving the most social media conversations since Sept. 1.
“Holiday shopping is a huge investment, and consumers get more sophisticated every year with their online and mobile shopping in order to secure the most popular gifts at the best prices,” said Tamara Gaffney, principal research analyst, Adobe Digital Index. “The average U.S. Internet user will spend a total of $305 online in November and December, with an average of $11 on Cyber Monday, which will set the record for largest online shopping day of all time. Both months combined will drive more than 22 percent of the total annual online sales for U.S. retailers.”
The top Holiday gifts for 2015 based on social media buzz are according to Adobe Star Wars BB-8 for toys. Apple Watch for wearables. Apple TV for streaming devices. PlayStation 4 for game consoles. Minecraft and Halo 5 close for most talked about game. Apple iPad for tablets. Sony for high-end 4K TVs. All these hot gifts can be found in our Top Holiday 2015 Tech Gifts Guide as well.
The full Adobe Holiday 2015 report is available as slides here.
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The Adobe Holiday shopping forecast is based on an analysis of 55 million product SKUs and aggregated and anonymous data of more than one trillion visits to 4,500 retail websites over the last seven years. Seven dollars and fifty cents out of every ten dollars spent online with the top 500 U.S. retailers go through Adobe Marketing Cloud. Adobe has insights into 80 percent of all transactions from the top 100 retailers in the U.S.