Linux to lose Netbook OS War to Microsoft Windows in 2009

Mar 17 2009, 10:44am CDT | by Luigi Lugmayr

The first Asus Eee netbooks only came with Linux. Linux was the first choice for Asus to offer a low-cost mini notebook. Now 2 years later Linux is predicted to only get 10% of the netbook OS market share in 2009. What is going wrong for Linux?
Microsoft got scared early on when the netbook hype was just starting and made Asus a deal to license XP for a much lower licensing fee. This is how Microsoft got into the netbook market - with a stone-old, but good Windows. The more mainstream netbooks got the more customers went for what they know, which in most cases is Windows.Dell still said in February that about 30% of their netbooks sell with Linux. Digitimes reports today that Chinese Economic Daily News published a report of a Taiwanese research firm that sees Linux at a 10% market share on netbooks in 2009. Most netbooks come from Taiwan so these predictions might have substance. I assume they see a huge surge of Windows 7 on netbooks in 2009.

The problem with Linux is that netbook makers always do their own packaging and seldom go only with a Linux distributor like Ubuntu. This means developement and support costs that Microsoft sure argues are much higher than with a Windows OS. Linux is too scattered to compete with Windows 7. Most likely the Microsoft marketing power will plaster Windows 7 on almost all netbooks in this year and in 2010.

I feel sorry for Linux. This was its chance to get on the end user desktop, but it is almost certain it lost the war unless Microsoft makes a mistake with Windows 7. See our Netbook Guide for the best netbooks to buy right now.

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Luigi Lugmayr
Luigi is the founding chief Editor of I4U News and brings over 15 years experience in the technology field to the ever evolving and exciting world of gadgets. He started I4U News back in 2000 and evolved it into vibrant technology magazine.
Luigi can be contacted directly at ml@i4u.com. Luigi posts regularly on LuigiMe.com about his experience running I4U.